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    Welcome Summer…We Sure Did Miss You.

    June sales were 623 in Ada County, a decrease of 6% compared to sales in June 2010.

    Historically, May sales increase somewhere between 1% and 6%.  June 2011 had 4% more sales than May 2011.

    Year-to-date 2011 sales are within 3% of YTD 2010. As of the end of June we are within 100 units of YTD sales this time on 2010.

    Of our total sales in June… 47% were distressed….down 6% from May 2011. (Short sales 15% and REO’s 31%). Distressed sales continue to dominate the market…but have now fallen below a "majority” of sales for the first time in 2011!

    Pending sales at the end of June were 957; and decrease of 5% from the end of May. On average, pending sales at the end of May are the highest of the year.  In 2010 pending sales slipped by 20% from the end of May to the end of June. The percentage of pending sales in distress were essentially unchanged from May, totaling 44% overall. We are now at three consecutive months below 50%.

    The number of houses available for sale at the end of June fell below 2,600 for the first time in years to 2,575.  This is down 3% from May and 33% less than last year at this time. Currently available inventory compares to early 2006.

    At the same time, the percentage of active inventory that is distressed dropped almost 2% from May to 34%.  This is the fourth consecutive monthly decline and keeps us below the 40% levels set last spring….when we were on the increase.

    In Ada County we have 4 months of inventory on hand…historically this number defines a strong "seller’s market”.  The price category in shortest supply is <$100,000 with 2.6 months available. This is closely followed by the $100,000 to $120,000 with 2.5 months and $120,000 to $159,000 with 4.2 months. These are the lowest numbers in more than a year!

    There is also positive news on some of the higher priced inventory; $500,000 to $699,999 inventory dropped for a second month in a row to 8.3!

    June median home price jumped $10,500 to $153,500; down 5% from June 2010. This is the highest median price we’ve had so far this year. It’s also the closest we’ve been to 2010 prices all year.

    New Homes median price for June 2011 was $241,900, an increase of almost 48% from June 2010.

    We continue to "benefit” from inventory levels much lower than national average.

    Unfortunately, despite half a year gone and all evidence to the contrary, many "experts” will be telling us in the next few weeks that June was just a "blip” and that things will be getting worse…not better.

    I was a guest at a recent presentation by the Chief Economist for a leading title company. He forecast doom and gloom for the rest of this year and much of next.  It was very frustrating to hear him talk about the importance of looking at micro market data and then to turn right around and lump Ada County numbers with Canyon county; and conclude the worst is yet to come.

    One questioner asked: "Well you’ve got me good and scared, so what’s the answer?”  Sadly his answer was that Congress needs to do a better job.  Fat chance that’s going to happen anytime soon.

    This speaker went on to talk about the financial Armageddon that will occur when Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling and we default on our loans.

    Today on NPR the interviewer talked about one of our Congressmen stating that he would only vote to raise the ceiling if it was accompanied by a constitutional amendment for a balanced Federal budget…to use a very popular and often appropriate response to other inanities…”Really?”

    There will be a last minute compromise and the debt ceiling will be raised for the 118th time since it was created in 1917.

    There are those among us who think that now is the time to arm ourselves and hunker down to prepare for the worst.

    I can only say "Thank You” to the moderate business leaders in our community that reject that attitude and are driving our recovery forward.





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